The Few, The Humiliated, The Betrayed.

I am officially surprised. When I looked at the election results back in June 2004, I figured that the Liberals would have to follow the desires of the Bloc Quebecois in order to avoid Joe Clark's end. Most people, journalist and pundits included (for they are people too), were betting on the NDP to fill that role. Joe might have been too. That Paul Martin would choose to depend on the man who accused him of killing homeless people in Toronto seemed silly to me at the time. But politics is sometimes silly, and there is a greater chance of that when Layton is involved.

I had figured that the Bloc would hold the balance because of their numbers (54 seats) and because the proximity of their social and political agenda to that of the Liberals on most major issues then on the horizon: childcare, the Iraq war, security, military spending, Kyoto and the environment, gay rights, money for urban centers, and sending large contracts and substantial amounts of federal money to Quebec. The exception was/is Quebec separation (and only recently transfer payments). Conversely, the gulf between the Liberals and the Conservatives on these issues was and remains significant.

I am surprised to hear Duceppe say that the budget "is totally unacceptable." I am also surprised that in his rejection, he did not allude to the humiliation of Quebec. Clayton, of course, was "disappointed" and felt betrayed. He wants a couple of days to figure out whether he likes it enough, which is fair enough. Prudence is good. It beats saying something stupid right away.

With all that ideological proximity to the Bloc, Martin was not able to get Duceppe to move. The Bloc wants the "fiscal imbalance" to be fixed, which essentially means that the feds should give more and more money to Quebec. Martin has created, and it continues with this budget, some serious expectations to please too many people. The logic of granting more to Quebec (or to any one for that matter) has always been the same. Is there an amount that would satisfy the Bloc? Probably not.

Martin managed significantly to satisfy Harper on the right, it seems, while not inciting the open ire of the NDP and the Bloc: Seven new billion for the military, some modest tax cuts, and a balanced budget in spite of the Liberal spending spree over the next five years. Harper declared himself "happier" than expected. In reality, the Bloc and the NDP should be too.

Unable to count on the Bloc, and considering that the Liberals have lost three of their 135 seats of last Summer (one death, one expulsion, and one as the Speaker), the NDP's 19 seats are not enough to bring the government to the needed 155. Even if the Liberals also enlisted the two Independents (one of whom is an infamous Liberal reject), the 19 NDP are not enough. Too close, too volatile. Canadians and the Canadian military can give thanks to G-d for that.

So, the Liberals have turned to the more stable and more pragmatic Harper to hold the balance. Harper is not eager to go to the Polls again without a party constitution, without defined policy, and with having to go through a party policy convention just around the corner. Wisely, he is not eager to bring down the government over small things. We can also be grateful that even in his pathological desire to please everyone, Martin seems to grasp the important notion that there are various degrees of pleasing.

Clever strategy just the same, even if dictated by necessity. By relying on Conservatives for support, Martin somewhat neutralizes the influence of the independents, the Bloc and the NDP: the few, the humiliated, the betrayed. Expect these to be more vocal about their opposition to the budget. But with issues such as homosexual marriage, Kyoto, and childcare on the agenda, their side lining will not go on for the duration of this parliament. The Liberals will be back to court them, and the Conservatives will be marginalized then.

Harper should also be pleased because this Liberal budget vindicates his electoral promises to raise spending by about $50 billion, a pledge that the Martinistas had mocked and labeled a "black hole." Whether Harper will be able to translate this vindication to his advantage in the next campaign is a different matter. Boasting that he knew the finances more than a year in advance better than the Liberals (who have been in power for more than a decade) may not have much of an impact with the amnesia-ridden Canadian voter.