A Master or A Prentice

Jim Prentice, Conservative MP for Calgary-Centre North announced last week that he would vote in favor of the Liberal Party's bill redefining traditional marriage. He calls it an issue of conscience. But he may have been worried about what other people thought for he felt compelled to declare that he has been married to the same woman for many years. Why would that be an issue?

Prentice is a calculating man. Three years ago he withdrew from a race in Calgary South West to extend an olive branch to Stephen Harper. Understanding that the Tories and the Reform/Alliance would not get electorally far as two different parties, he campaigned for long to bridge the gap between both groups. In the public eye, he did well in that role. Prentice is slick, and has tried to paint himself as a conciliatory man. He has demonstrated patience and discipline, both vital virtues in politics.

Prentice has been in politics because he wants to go all the way. Wishing some day to become leader of his party and one day Prime Minister, he does not wish to be constrained by geography. He would like to continue to be elected in the West, but wants to build and consolidate support in the East for when the day comes. He figures that as a Western candidate, he is much better to shed the redneck image that westerners (and Calgarians, specifically) tend to have in the corridors of power over there. He wants to appeal to the other side. In short, Prentice wants to be selected to high office, and for that he needs to be electable. But he wants to distance himself from his electors here, and from the hickish image that the rest of the country has of them.

Jim Prentice may have misread the winds, however. If the polls keep showing what they are showing of lately, he could end up in some trouble in the near future. Bill Rodgers in the Toronto Sun cites results from the latest SES polls.

More than 54% of Canadians say they want their MP to vote based on the views expressed in his or her riding. Only 21.8% would respect an MP voting with his or her conscience and slightly more than 16% would agree to their MP voting the way their party tells them to.

More than half the electors are not looking for an issue of conscience here. They want their representative's vote to reflect their views. And these are aggregated figures. In the foothills of Calgary, where the populists winds tend to be a little blustery, that figure is likely much higher.

What is more, the split between supporters of homosexual marriage and their counterparts is close. But it has been close during a time in which there was no debate, and no one had stepped up to the plate to make arguments against homosexual marriage. Now that several leaders of the religious and secular communities are making the arguments in the public light, the numbers will likely change against homosexual marriage, even if only marginally. And when things are as tight as they are, "marginal" is typically significant.

Prentice may end up in a lonely corner of the debate, in a lonely corner of his party, and in a lonely corner of his riding.

Oh, yes! He can be consoled in the knowledge that he will have much support in progressive places such as Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal. Surely, among them he will be regarded as a Master, but among his own, he may remain a Prentice.