Knock, Knock, Knocking on Prentice's Door

Yesterday, a reader left the following commentary on a posting from last month regarding Tory MP Jim Prentice's opportunistic volte face on the question of homosexual marriage. It has prompted me to remember some of the history of the riding in which I lived for a few years, and to ponder some of the avenues open to Prentice, and to those who oppose his about face.

As a resident of Prentice's riding, I'm disappointed by Jim's decision to support the Liberal redefinition of marriage, but not the least bit surprised. As mentioned on the blog, Jim is a calculating man. Joe Clark held this riding before Prentice. He won because NDP and Liberal voters in the riding threw their support to Clark to prevent an Alliance candidate from winning. Prentice is calculating that he will pick up more than enough NDP/Green/Liberal votes to offset the few Conservative votes he will lose, thus guaranteeing him another win. Unfortunately Jim has sent a message to Conservative voters like myself that says - if he can change his mind on one Liberal issue, why note another - like gun control, or decriminalizing marijuana?

Thanks for the comments, JR.

The Joe Clark element that JR identifies is very much on the radar for Prentice, we can be sure. But there are a couple of things that lead into that first. Prentice is counting on the fact that candidates' nominations in the Conservative Party will be grandfathered for all MPs heading into the next election. Prentice's calculating mind knows that he will not have to face a nomination race, in other words. He can coast from here to the next election, he has figured. And by the time the next one after that comes around -- five, six, seven years from now-- no one is going to remember any of this. Time is on his side. Sounds like a good bet for him.

But Prentice must also be counting on Harper to sign his nomination papers. Harper might be encouraged not to, though, if there is enough pressure put on Harper by the grassroots in the constituency. It might be a little hellish, but it can be done.

My guess is that the Tories from Calgary Centre-North should not wait until there is an election called to try to move on this. It will be too late by then. They should move now, get some speed going, and press Harper not to sign Prentice's papers. If the constituents of Centre-North do nothing or if they lose in their attempts to remove him, they'll end up with a pro homosexual marriage MP no matter what. They got nothing to lose in that sense. And, as JR points out, what else will Prentice sacrifice his constituents about in his effort to be more appealing down East? What else will he switch camps on? And even more so now that he will learn that he can just get away with it if nothing is done.

Pushing Prentice out is about the only option they have left, if they wish to have choices in the next election. That, or more democratic deficit, if you will. Conservatives in Centre-North will have to choose and vote between an all pro gay marriage political cast. In the absence of a contrasting choice, I will repeat myself, if the Libs run a strong pro homosexual marriage candidate, s/he would have an excellent chance of taking Prentice out.
Constituents of Centre-North can make the argument that the party could lose the seat to a pro gay marriage Liberal. All things being equal, why would voters want to vote for someone who changes his mind and betrays his partisans? Even Liberals understand loyalty. Has Prentice not been watching the unfoldings of the Gomery Commission? What would be the incentive for a Liberal to vote for a candidate like Prentice, if their own is also in favor of the same thing?

What is more, sensing the softness of the riding on the question, the Liberals would be encouraged to launch a strong candidate to get that seat, which would turn into a cabinet seat, in Calgary, should they win the big prize. Why would a Liberal back Prentice when s/he could end up with a Liberal cabinet minister instead? And one more: Why would a pro gay marriage Liberal vote for Prentice if he and his ideological kin in the Conservatives are but a small rump, rather than having a Liberal of their own representing their views among a bigger, friendlier caucus? Conversely, if the Conservative Party wins the next election, and Prentice gets into cabinet, he will be even more inclined to do what he wishes, instead of listening to his constituents. Centre-North will be looking at an even greater democratic deficit then.

At first blush, the calculation that Prentice might pull a Joe Clark in the riding seems like a long shot. Joe --for better or for worse, actually more likely for worse-- was a former PM. He has a wife and a daughter that worked their tails off for him. In the days when Clark knocked off Erick Lowther, the Alliance and the Tories were split, and the Libs were running a nobody. Therefore, the logic and incentive (against Lowther and) for a pro Clark axis (Tories, Greens, NDs and Libs) was strong. One imagines that those conditions will not be repeated in Centre-North the next time around (And Prentice does not enjoy the organizing talents, and the restless work of Maureen McTeer; nor is Katherine likely running to come door-knocking with Jim).

On the surface, Prentice's chances are not as good as they seem, as I argued in the post last month, unless... any of three scenarios (or a combination thereof) come to be:

1. Prentice vaults and runs as a Liberal candidate (Laugh, if you will, but I am not discounting this one. Prentice walked the line between the Alliance and the Tories without blushing before, and he is now walking the line between the Grits and the Tories. It's clever positioning. Let's give him that)
2. Prentice cuts a deal with the Liberals and the other parties, like Joe Clark did back in 2000, to abandon their own candidates in favor of him. (But such a deal will not come for free. The question here is: what will Prentice promise them in return? Do we see another Grand Marshall pushing a broken car in a parade already?).
3. The Conservatives in Prentice's riding submissively take their MPs about face and don't do anything at all

I am assuming here that Prentice has not already worked out a deal with the Liberals in his riding before he made his public announcement. Prentice may have inherited more than a grandfatherly nomination; he may be the natural successor to the Joe Clark deal of five years ago. From the Conservative grassroots point of view, that should be reason enough to act. If Prentice has negotiated with the other parties already, the riding's Conservatives will have to take him out. Harper will pull the proverbial trigger, one hopes. If Prentice has not yet cut a deal, why wait until he does, or until the constituents finally find out that he has, after the election?